Analysts believe that SpaceX’s market capitalization could reach $1.7 trillion during a future IPO, provided investors are willing to invest with a 3–5 year outlook and consider the influence of Elon Musk’s personality. Senior PitchBook analyst Franco Granda is convinced that such a valuation is possible under a number of conditions.
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Growth Potential and Financial Projections for SpaceX
The analyst emphasizes that with a capitalization of $1.7 trillion, investors are effectively agreeing to a price/sales multiple of over x100, which significantly exceeds the metrics of many technology companies. For comparison, Palantir has a ratio of about x77, one of the highest in the S&P 500. According to Granda, in the event of an IPO, the company could raise up to $50 billion, allowing for the expansion of the Starship rocket development, the Starlink satellite internet network, and the implementation of innovative direct communication technologies with smartphones.
“A valuation of SpaceX at $1.7 trillion during the initial public offering (IPO) could be justified if investors are willing to focus on the long-term perspective and accept the ‘Musk factor’.”
According to PitchBook’s forecasts, SpaceX’s revenue could grow from nearly $16 billion in 2025 to $150 billion by 2040. In this case, the price/revenue multiple would decrease to x12, making the company’s valuation more attractive to the market.
Starlink and the ‘Platform Premium’ Strategy: What Could Ensure Success
The valuation of SpaceX’s business takes into account the rapid expansion of Starlink and its leading position in the space launch segment. Additional projects, including space data centers and a lunar base, are considered promising, but their impact on revenue is not currently factored in.
A key factor for SpaceX could be the so-called ‘platform premium’ — a unique combination of technologies: satellite internet, artificial intelligence, rocket launches, and new telecommunications services. If the company succeeds in implementing this strategy, it could surpass most S&P 500 giants in capitalization, including Meta.
At the same time, experts warn of risks, including significant stock volatility, potential delays in Starship testing, and regulatory restrictions from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) of the United States. Regulatory processes could become a major obstacle to a stable launch schedule and dynamic company growth in 2026. The ‘Musk factor’ is also highlighted — his behavior on social media and public statements have repeatedly caused scandals and affected the stock prices of his companies.
It was previously reported that xAI plans to pay off a $17.5 billion debt in preparation for SpaceX’s IPO.