The investment firm Ark Invest maintains its forecasts for significant growth in the price of Bitcoin by 2030. According to analysts, the value of the first cryptocurrency could range from $300,000 in a pessimistic scenario to $1.5 million in an optimistic scenario.
This is reported by Business • Media
Institutional Demand and the Impact of ETFs
David Puell, Deputy Portfolio Manager of Digital Assets at Ark, explains that the strengthening of institutional presence in the market plays a key role in shaping this forecast. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. in 2024 was a defining moment for the industry. Overall, in the year and a half following the launch, American ETFs attracted over $50 billion in net investments, leading to a reduction in the available supply of Bitcoin and increased market liquidity. The products from BlackRock and Fidelity made the largest contributions to these processes.
Puell emphasizes that exchange-traded funds and corporate strategies have currently accumulated approximately 12% of the total Bitcoin supply. This exceeded previous expectations and became one of the main factors driving price dynamics in 2025. According to Ark’s estimates, this effect will persist in 2026, although opposing forces are also at play in the market.
“The market has shifted from the question of ‘whether to invest’ to the question of the volume of investments and the choice of access instruments.”
Three Development Scenarios and Market Stabilization
Ark Invest continues to use a three-scenario model for assessing the future of Bitcoin. In the bearish scenario, the price will reach approximately $300,000, in the base case around $710,000, and in the bullish case up to $1.5 million. The first two scenarios are based on a value preservation function, while in the most optimistic case, further institutional adoption of Bitcoin plays a leading role.
David Puell also notes that the reduction in volatility has been an additional supporting factor. Since the minimum in 2022, the cryptocurrency has not experienced corrections deeper than 36%, which is unusual for previous cycles. A smaller amplitude of fluctuations and a smoother dynamic make Bitcoin more attractive to conservative investors.
Ark Invest analysts emphasize that macroeconomic and regulatory factors play an important role, including the easing of U.S. monetary policy and the increase in regulatory certainty. The company is focused on a five-year investment horizon and considers the institutional maturation of Bitcoin to be as important as reaching a specific price level.
Additionally, according to data from analytical platforms, the growth in Bitcoin’s value is supported by positive changes in on-chain metrics and investor behavior, which also contribute to the stability and development of the market.