The Bitcoin Combined Market Index (BCMI) has approached a historical support level, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics. Analysts note that the index is currently in the range of 0.2-0.3, which has previously been associated with periods of deep undervaluation of Bitcoin.
This is reported by Business • Media
Index Structure and Market Signals
According to experts, the BCMI is based on several key metrics, among which the most significant are MVRV (30% weight) and NUPL (25%). The calculation also takes into account SOPR and the well-known Fear and Greed Index. This comprehensive approach allows for a more accurate tracking of market sentiment and asset value changes.
Currently, BCMI indicators show a significant decrease in realized value and market expectations — levels last observed at the beginning of 2023. However, analysts caution that entering this zone does not guarantee an immediate V-shaped recovery in Bitcoin’s value.
“Analysts added that the market is entering a ‘value accumulation zone.’ In their assessment, the potential for further decline appears limited compared to the long-term growth potential. However, final confirmation of a bottom formation requires price stabilization.”
Trends and Current Price Dynamics of Bitcoin
Despite approaching a historically significant support zone, the 90-day Simple Moving Average (SMA 90) of the BCMI still maintains a downward trend. Experts emphasize that a stable consolidation of the average is necessary to confirm a reversal — only then can one speak of the end of selling pressure.
Additionally, attention is drawn to the fact that the Bitcoin market is entering an accumulation phase, and the potential for further decline appears limited against the backdrop of significant long-term growth potential. At the same time, a definitive signal for market bottom formation is only possible after price stabilization.
According to experts, the current increase in Bitcoin’s value is accompanied by an elevated risk of profit-taking. The price of Bitcoin has now approached the traders’ realized price — approximately $76,800. Historically, this mark is an important resistance zone, as many investors begin to sell the asset upon reaching breakeven.
At the time of preparing this material, Bitcoin is trading around the $75,500 mark, which also reflects increased volatility in the market.
