Analysts from the crypto investment firm Bitwise have presented a long-term forecast indicating that the price of Bitcoin could reach $1.3 million by 2035. The company’s base scenario anticipates such a significant increase in the price of the first cryptocurrency against the backdrop of growing institutional demand, coin scarcity, and macroeconomic risks.
This is reported by Business • Media
Main Growth Factors and Macroeconomic Context
Bitwise emphasizes that currently, 94.8% of Bitcoins are in circulation, and the annual rate of new issuance will decrease to 0.2% by 2032. This creates a unique asset scarcity, which, combined with increasing institutional demand, forms a “perfect storm” for further growth. The company’s experts suggest that the average annual return of Bitcoin could reach 28.3% — significantly higher than traditional assets: stocks (6.2%), bonds (4.0%), and gold (3.8%).
“The inelastic supply of Bitcoin combined with rising demand is the most important driver of our long-term assumptions,” emphasize Bitwise.
In the “bullish” scenario, Bitwise predicts the price of BTC will rise to $2.97 million (CAGR 39.4%), while in the “bearish” scenario, a possible decline to $88,005 (CAGR 2%) is anticipated. Such a wide range demonstrates the high volatility of the market, despite the increasing role of institutional investors.
According to Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan and his team of analysts, the Bitcoin market is already defined not by retail but by institutional players.
Additional Influencing Factors and Market Participants’ Opinions
The report notes that about 70% of all Bitcoins remain inactive for over a year, indicating a strong HODL trend among investors. Bitwise also cites U.S. debt risks as a positive factor: over the past five years, national debt has increased by $13 trillion, reaching $36.2 trillion, while annual interest payments exceeded $952 billion, becoming the fourth-largest budget item. This, according to analysts, increases the likelihood of fiat currency devaluation and supports demand for Bitcoin.
Bitwise’s forecast is complemented by a number of assessments from other well-known market participants:
- Arthur Hayes, co-founder of Maelstrom, predicts Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2028 amid Trump’s policies, tariffs, and dollar issuance;
- Andre Dragosh from Bitwise believes the price will reach $1 million by 2029 due to demand from ETFs and governments;
- Blockstream CEO Adam Back allows for BTC growth to $500,000–$1 million in the current market cycle;
- Robert Kiyosaki warns of hyperinflation due to U.S. debt issues and predicts Bitcoin’s price will rise to $1 million;
- Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong estimates the possibility of BTC rising to $1 million by 2030 due to ETFs, regulatory clarity, and the inclusion of cryptocurrency in U.S. reserves.
At the same time, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz expressed concern over reaching the $1 million mark too quickly, considering it a potential signal of serious economic problems.
Leading among corporate Bitcoin buyers remains Strategy, which has increased its reserves to over 632,457 BTC, with a total value exceeding $71 billion and an unrealized profit of $25 billion.
Bitwise analysts conclude that the unique combination of limited supply, increasing institutional accumulation, and macroeconomic instability creates favorable conditions for significant Bitcoin growth in the coming years.