Analysts at JPMorgan Chase believe that Bitcoin is currently significantly undervalued compared to gold and has the potential to rise to $165,000 by the end of 2025. This forecast is based on current market trends and technical analysis, which suggests that Bitcoin’s market capitalization needs to increase by 42% to achieve parity with gold.
This is reported by Business • Media
Rising demand for hedge assets and ETF dynamics
The bank’s report emphasizes that a key factor driving the growth of Bitcoin and gold is the so-called “devaluation trading” – a strategy of reallocating capital from traditional financial instruments into safe-haven assets to preserve value during periods of fiat currency decline. As noted by JPMorgan Chase, there has been a noticeable increase in capital flowing into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on gold and Bitcoin recently.
According to the World Gold Council, since the end of August 2025, the gold-based ETF sector has recorded weekly net inflows of capital ranging from $1.8 billion to $4.2 billion. September was particularly dynamic: during that month, approximately $13.6 billion flowed into gold ETFs, while spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $3.53 billion during the same period.
“To ‘catch up’ with gold, Bitcoin’s market capitalization needs to increase by 42%, according to technical analysis.”
Comparative analysis of volatility and correlation
The JPMorgan Chase report highlights that the volatility index of Bitcoin relative to gold has fallen below 2 points. This indicates that Bitcoin is currently able to attract nearly twice as much risk capital compared to gold. Bank analysts calculated that to reach a level of $6 billion in private investments in gold, Bitcoin’s market capitalization must increase by 42%, corresponding to a price of $165,000 per coin. At the same time, experts add that Bitcoin was overvalued at the end of 2024.
There remains a direct correlation between the two assets in the short-term (30 days) and long-term (365 days) perspectives; however, the 90-day moving average shows an inverse correlation. Charts clearly indicate that since mid-August 2025, gold has significantly outpaced Bitcoin in terms of growth rates.
In the period leading up to the shutdown, the price of gold reached an all-time high, while Bitcoin temporarily decreased in price. However, the subsequent rise in gold prices made this asset less attractive to investors, which, according to JPMorgan Chase, led to increased interest in Bitcoin as an alternative capital preservation tool.