On the prediction platform Polymarket, the likelihood of a government shutdown in the US by the end of January is estimated at 77%. Over the past day, this figure has surged by nearly 67%, demonstrating one of the fastest jumps in the political markets on the platform.
This is reported by Business • Media
Politicians’ Statements Increased Market Tension
- Polymarket odds sharply increased following comments from Donald Trump and Chuck Schumer.
- The risk of a shutdown deepens the uncertainty regarding the consideration of the CLARITY Act.
- Debates continue in the crypto industry regarding regulation, particularly around the profitability of stablecoins.
The increase in the probability of a shutdown occurred after a statement from US President Donald Trump, who suggested that the country “likely” faces another government shutdown. The situation was further complicated by remarks from Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer, who emphasized that the Republican Party would not support the budget bill if it included funding for the Department of Homeland Security.
He stressed that “a bad law is worse than no law at all.”
Impact on the Crypto Industry and Consideration of the CLARITY Act
Political uncertainty has negatively impacted the prospects for considering the important CLARITY Act for the crypto market. Previous delays in reviewing this document have already been linked to the record 43-day government shutdown in the US last fall. Additional pressure on the bill comes from the stance of the crypto industry. In particular, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong announced the company’s withdrawal of support for the bill, highlighting the problematic nature of the proposed solutions.
Alex Thorn, head of the research division at Galaxy Digital, believes that the key issue lies in the lack of compromise regarding the profitability of stablecoins. According to him, in the coming weeks, the parties are likely to return to discussions on amendments, but currently, there are almost no preconditions for reconciling positions.
It is worth noting that the US banking lobby has already identified curbing profitable stablecoins as a top priority for 2026.
