The Bitcoin market is witnessing the conclusion of its stress cycle; however, there are currently no clear signals indicating a shift towards sustained growth. This is suggested by the analysis of key indicators conducted by experts at CryptoQuant.
This is reported by Business • Media
Main Indicators: Sharpe Ratio and Delta of Buy/Sell Pressure
Experts are focusing on two main metrics: the short-term Sharpe ratio and the delta of buy/sell pressure. Currently, the Sharpe ratio for Bitcoin has dropped to approximately -40 — this is a historical accumulation zone that previously served as an entry point for long-term investments. Similar values have been observed in 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2023, indicating the asset is undervalued.
The second indicator — the delta of buy/sell pressure — shows a transition from the capitulation phase to a gradual recovery. During the recent turbulence, the market experienced a sharp increase in selling pressure (below -0.05), but this indicator is now stabilizing. However, the delta has not yet reached the so-called “blue zone,” indicating a lack of sustained demand and confirmed market reversal.
“The stress cycle of Bitcoin is nearing its end, but there is currently no signal for a full market reversal.”
According to experts, the period between the end of the capitulation phase and the transition to active recovery is usually the most profitable for investors in terms of risk and return. However, they emphasize that the macroeconomic situation, liquidity levels, and market participants’ sentiment can influence the duration of this phase.
Market Sentiment and Profitability: Is the Bear Market Continuing?
Analyst Darkfost points out that currently only about 59% of the Bitcoin supply remains profitable. This brings the market closer to levels typical of bear phases. In comparison, the historical average of profitable supply is approximately 75%.
According to historical observations, when the share of profitable positions drops to 50%, the market is usually at the bottom of a bear cycle. The expert recommends accumulating the asset during peak increases in unprofitable positions and reducing exposure when nearly the entire market is profitable.
The current situation, in the analysts’ view, resembles a phase of accumulation rather than active selling. This could create favorable conditions for long-term investors if the market receives confirmation of demand recovery.
It was previously reported that the number of active addresses in the Bitcoin network has fallen to the lowest levels in the past eight years since the beginning of 2026, which also indicates restrained activity among market participants.