The analytical company Dragon Capital has revised its macroeconomic forecast for Ukraine downwards for the coming years. According to updated estimates, the growth rate of Ukraine’s real GDP in 2025 will be 1.7% instead of the previously expected 2%, and in 2026 it will be 1% instead of 1.5%. The main reasons for the forecast adjustment were the intensification of attacks by the Russian Federation on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and uncertainty regarding the EU’s position on the use of frozen Russian assets.
This is reported by Business • Media
Dynamics of Economic Growth and the Impact of Hostilities
Experts at Dragon Capital note that in the first half of 2025, the growth of Ukraine’s real GDP slowed to 0.8% year-on-year. In comparison, this figure was 2.9% in 2024 and 5.5% in 2023. Thus, the negative impact of military actions and energy attacks by the Russian Federation is reflected in the country’s economic dynamics.
Inflation and Future Prospects
The company also highlighted the dynamics of inflationary processes. Over the past few months, annual inflation has slowed, decreasing to 11.9% in September 2025 from 15.9% in May. At the same time, economists warn of a possible increase in inflationary pressure in the coming months due to rising business costs for energy supply and increased budget expenditures, although they predict a decrease in inflation in 2026.
“Analysts expect that fundamental inflationary pressure will intensify in the coming months due to further increases in business costs for energy supply and increased budget expenditures, but will again weaken in 2026.”
According to Dragon Capital’s estimates, consumer inflation this year will be 9.3%, and by the end of 2026, it will decrease to 6%.
At the same time, if a sustainable ceasefire is achieved at the beginning of 2026, the company confirms the possibility of a more significant recovery of Ukraine’s economy — up to 5% GDP growth year-on-year.