Analysts at the investment company Dragon Capital have updated their forecasts for Ukraine’s economic growth for 2025. According to the baseline scenario, which assumes the continuation of the active phase of the war, the real GDP growth rate in 2025 may only reach 2%. This forecast is explained by the diminishing impact of previous growth factors and the ongoing loss of production capacities, which has already been felt in the dynamics of the economy.
This is reported by Business • Media
Economic Prospects for 2026 and the Role of a Ceasefire
In 2026, experts estimate that GDP growth will slow further to 1.5% if hostilities continue. At the same time, it is expected that the expansion of the military-industrial complex, whose production volumes could increase to $20 billion in 2026 (compared to $9 billion in 2024), along with sustained consumer demand, will become the main drivers of the economy. However, if a stable ceasefire is established at the beginning of 2026, Ukraine’s GDP could grow by up to 5%. This would be possible due to an increase in investments, the partial return of Ukrainians from abroad, and a rise in exports.
Inflation Forecast and Influencing Factors
According to the baseline scenario, by the end of the current year, inflation in Ukraine is expected to slow to 9.3%. This trend is explained by a decrease in fundamental price pressure, as well as the impact of a high comparison base in the food segment. In 2026, if the war continues, inflation may decrease to 5.3%. However, in the event of a ceasefire, this figure is expected to be 7.5% due to increased consumer demand and rising utility tariffs.
“If a stable ceasefire is established at the beginning of 2026, GDP could grow by up to 5% due to a revival in investments, the partial return of refugees, and an increase in exports.”