The Ukrainian government forecasts that in 2025, the growth of the country’s real gross domestic product will be only 2%. This figure is lower than the previous estimate of 2.7% announced by the Minister of Economy, Oleksiy Sobolev. According to the official, the main drivers of economic growth remain industry, manufacturing, the energy sector, and the agro-industrial complex.
This is reported by Business • Media
EBRD Revises Economic Forecast for Ukraine
At the same time, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has lowered its forecast for the growth of Ukraine’s real GDP in 2025 to 2.5% from the previously expected 3.3%. Meanwhile, the financial institution confirmed its 5% forecast for 2026, but cautioned that this scenario would only be realized if hostilities come to an end. Bank experts emphasize the persistent high uncertainty for the Ukrainian economy, which is linked to security risks, the state of energy infrastructure, and significant dependence on international support.
“The EBRD points to high uncertainty for the Ukrainian economy due to security risks, the state of the energy system, and dependence on external support.”
Investments and Comparison with Other Countries in the Region
Compared to other countries in the region where the EBRD is present, the average projected level of economic growth is 3.1% this year and 3.3% in 2026. Despite the challenging situation, the EBRD remains the leading institutional investor in Ukraine – since February 2022, the bank has financed projects worth nearly 8.4 billion euros, of which about 3 billion has been directed to the energy sector.