The National Bank of Ukraine reported that in the first half of this year, economic growth was supported by fiscal incentives backed by international funding. However, the growth rates remained moderate due to an increase in shelling by the Russian Federation, which led to new destruction of production infrastructure, housing stock, and transport facilities. These circumstances provoked an increase in internal migration, complicating the situation in the labor market.
This is reported by Business • Media
Weather Conditions and the State of the Agricultural Sector
Unfavorable weather conditions also impacted the economy: delays in harvesting and limited crop prospects became additional hindering factors for the development of the food industry and the transport sector. The gradual depletion of last year’s harvest stocks further complicates the situation for the industry.
Economic Forecast for 2025–2027
“In light of this, the NBU forecasts that the recovery of the economy will be slower than last year, with real GDP expected to grow by 2.1% in 2025 (compared to 2.9% last year). The NBU’s baseline scenario anticipates a gradual return of the economy to normal operating conditions and economic growth of 2-3% in 2026-2027.”
Analysts at the National Bank emphasize that if conditions normalize quickly, private investment and consumer activity could increase significantly. This could offset the effects of fiscal consolidation, and GDP growth rates could reach 3-3.5%.