According to forecasts by analysts surveyed by the Central Bank of Russia, the consolidated budget deficit of the Russian Federation from 2025 to 2027 will amount to 5.1% of GDP, which is approximately $145 billion. By 2025, Russia’s budget is expected to have a deficit of 2.4% of GDP or 5.3 trillion rubles, the highest level since the coronavirus pandemic when the deficit reached 4.6% of GDP.
This is reported by Business • Media
Trends in Budget Deficit and Influencing Factors
In 2026, the gap in the consolidated budget of Russia will decrease to 1.6% of GDP (3.9 trillion rubles), and in 2027 it will drop to 1.1% of GDP (2.9 trillion rubles). Overall, over three years, the deficit of the Russian budget system will reach 12.1 trillion rubles.
The financial situation in the country has been significantly affected by falling oil prices and the strengthening of the ruble. In the first eight months of 2025, oil and gas revenues decreased by 20%, and in August, the decline was already 35% year-on-year. In addition, regional budgets are suffering due to the economic slowdown and issues in the business environment.
Ministry of Finance Plans and Business Reaction
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov noted that in 2025, the Ministry of Finance of Russia plans to increase the volume of borrowing compared to initial plans. The primary program anticipated raising 4.8 trillion rubles; however, according to Siluanov, the debt volume will grow
“within reasonable limits.”
Amid the slowdown in economic activity, 57% of companies in Russia are preparing for further economic decline by the end of the year. The vast majority of enterprises (90%) over the past year have been forced to seek new partners, suppliers, and contractors, while 51% of companies have reduced staff for financial optimization. Additionally, 73% of companies continue to experience a labor shortage, and 67% have been unable to penetrate new markets over the past three years.