The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation has significantly revised its forecasts for economic growth for the current year. Previously, the agency expected GDP growth of 2.5%, but the forecast has now been lowered to 1.2%. This is 3.5 times less compared to last year’s figure and even below the 1.5% figure announced a week ago by the head of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation.
This is reported by Business • Media
Budget Deficit Increases and Revenues Decline
The authorities of the Russian Federation also predict that the federal budget deficit may exceed the current official forecast of 1.7% of GDP. During the budget formation, this figure was set at 0.5% of GDP. However, by the end of July, the federal budget deficit of the Russian Federation reached ₽4.88 trillion, which is 340% more than in the same period last year.
Oil and gas revenues have become an especially acute problem. In May, they fell by 35% year-on-year, in June by 34%, and in July by 28%. In the first seven months of the year, the decline amounted to 19%. This was significantly influenced by attacks from Ukrainian drones on Russian oil refining and pumping enterprises.
The attacks by Ukrainian drones on the oil refining and pumping facilities of the aggressor country also played a significant role in this.
Export Issues Due to Drone Attacks
According to estimates, in recent weeks, the attacks have incapacitated at least 17% of the oil refining capacities of Russian refineries, which processed about 1.1 million barrels of oil daily. Additionally, in September, the export terminal at the port of “Ust-Luga” will operate at only half capacity due to damage to the pipeline infrastructure. Furthermore, after the attack on the “Unecha” station in the Bryansk region, the transportation of oil through the “Druzhba” pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia was temporarily halted.