Russian Urals oil is currently being offered at a significant discount to the global benchmark Brent—nearly $15 per barrel when accounting for delivery costs and other associated expenses. At the beginning of the year, the price difference was about $10 per barrel; however, the tightening of sanctions and market changes are forcing Russia to make increasingly larger concessions to buyers.
This is reported by Business • Media
India Reduces Purchases, China Increases Imports
In the four weeks leading up to February 8, the average daily export of Russian oil was 3.33 million barrels, which is approximately 540,000 barrels less than the peak level recorded just before Christmas. This trend is primarily related to the reduction in purchases from India. In response, China has significantly increased its imports of Russian oil: in the first eight days of February alone, this figure rose to about 2.2 million barrels per day. As a result, the volumes of Russian oil stored on maritime tankers have begun to decrease.
India has approached state-owned refineries with a request to consider increasing crude oil purchases from the United States and Venezuela.
Potentially, Indian refineries are capable of importing about 20 million tons of American oil per year, which is equivalent to approximately 400,000 barrels per day.
Oil Price Forecasts: Expectations of Further Decline
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its oil price forecast: for the current year, the average Brent price is expected to reach $57.69 per barrel. By 2027, a further decline to $53 per barrel is projected. For comparison, in 2025, the average price was $69 per barrel. According to the EIA, in January 2026, the spot price of Brent was $67, which is $4 higher than in December of the previous year.
At the same time, it is anticipated that due to a significant increase in global oil production, global inventories will continue to rise, which, in turn, will lead to further declines in oil prices in the coming years.