The National Bank of Ukraine has presented an updated forecast for the country’s economic development over the next three years. According to the regulator’s estimates, a further decline in the inflation rate is expected in the coming months. However, due to extensive destruction in the energy sector and a low base for comparison from last year, the inflation rate may temporarily rise in the second half of the year. By the end of 2026, inflation is expected to be at 7.5%. In the following years, the trend of slowing inflation will continue: in 2027 it is projected to be at 6%, and in 2028 it will reach the NBU’s target of 5%.
This is reported by Business • Media
GDP Dynamics and Influencing Factors
Regarding the growth of gross domestic product, the National Bank notes that a positive balance will be formed due to increased harvests, investments in infrastructure and defense sector recovery, as well as stable consumer demand. However, due to significant destruction of energy infrastructure, the growth rate of real GDP will remain moderate. In particular, in 2026, growth will be 1.8%, which is linked to a projected electricity deficit of 6%. Throughout 2027, against the backdrop of a gradual decrease in security risks, economic activity will recover more quickly — up to 2.8%. In 2028, the growth rate will accelerate to 3.7%.
External Assistance and Financial Stability
According to the NBU’s estimates, external financial support will remain significant for Ukraine. In 2026, the country expects to receive about $51.4 billion from international partners, over $43 billion in 2027, and nearly $22 billion in 2028. Thanks to these resources, Ukraine will be able to cover the state budget deficit without the need for money emission, as well as maintain a sufficient level of international reserves to support stability in the currency market.
“By the end of 2026, inflation will moderately decrease to 7.5%. Subsequently, a steady slowdown in inflation is expected — to 6% in 2027 and to the NBU target of 5% in 2028.”
At the same time, ICU analysts warn that this year, the pace of economic growth may slow down. The main factors remain the energy crisis caused by Russian attacks, which disrupts production at many enterprises and negatively affects consumer sentiment. If the security situation does not improve significantly, achieving even moderate growth levels will be challenging. However, the continuation of external financial aid inflows will contribute to maintaining the country’s macroeconomic stability.