In 2025, Ukraine’s gross domestic product grew by 2.3%. Minister of Economy Oleksiy Sobolev reported that even amid the ongoing war, the economy demonstrated significant resilience. According to him, economic activity substantially revived in the second half of last year, despite regular Russian strikes on energy infrastructure and businesses.
This is reported by Business • Media
Expectations for 2026: Growth despite the challenges of war
According to forecasts from the Ministry of Economy, in 2026, Ukraine can expect economic growth of around 2%, even if hostilities continue throughout the year. Sobolev emphasizes that the main challenges will remain the electricity deficit and intensified attacks from Russia on Ukrainian businesses. To support enterprises, the government plans to provide grants for recovery and is preparing a broader assistance program for businesses.
“Therefore, even under a scenario where the war lasts the entire year of 2026, we are projecting economic growth of around 2%,” he said.
Sectors that will drive the economy
The Ministry of Economy believes that the main drivers of development in 2026 will be construction, domestic trade, manufacturing, and the defense sector. Oleksiy Sobolev also noted that there are positive expectations for the agricultural sector after two years of poor harvests. The coming year could be better for agriculture.
Positive trends are also observed at the global level: the World Bank has raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 to 2.6%, which is higher than previous expectations of 2.3%.