The share of bitcoins that are in loss is rising and approaching the 45% mark. Historically, this trend has coincided with the market transitioning into bearish phases, but experts estimate that market bottoms are usually only confirmed after surpassing the 50% level.
This is reported by Business • Media
- The share of bitcoin supply in loss is nearing 45%.
- Similar figures have been observed during bearish market phases.
- The key market bottom typically occurs after exceeding 50% of the supply in loss.
Current Situation in the Bitcoin Market
According to CryptoQuant, the volume of bitcoins that are in a loss state (Bitcoin Supply in Loss) is rising again. The corresponding figure is now approaching the range of 40-45%, reflecting an increase in the share of investors who purchased cryptocurrency at prices higher than the current market rates. The rise of this indicator means that more market participants are realizing paper losses by holding bitcoin at less favorable prices.
Historically, similar levels of coins in loss have been recorded during bearish market phases or during significant corrections, as seen in 2015, 2019, and 2022. Such periods were accompanied by increased market pressure and a rise in loss realization among investors.
Analysts believe that the current situation may indicate a weakening market structure. An increase in the share of coins in loss typically coincides with deteriorating sentiment among participants, as well as with the early phases of a bearish cycle. However, as data shows, key market bottoms have only formed after the share of bitcoins in loss exceeded 50%.
Other Market Indicators and Analyst Assessments
CryptoQuant specialists also highlight another important indicator—the coin retention ratio for periods ranging from one week to one month. This metric is often used to assess the short-term liquidity of bitcoin. Experience from past cycles shows that a significant decline in this ratio is usually recorded near the lows during bearish markets.
“Currently, this indicator has also dropped significantly. While the current level is still somewhat high to definitively state that ‘this is the bottom’, historical data interpretation suggests that the market has entered a zone that is quite close to undervalued territory,” analysts concluded.
Previously, K33 noted that bitcoin had reached one of the most oversold levels in its history, which may also indicate that the market is approaching undervalued zones.
Thus, the increase in the share of bitcoins in loss currently indicates heightened market stress, but historical analysis suggests that the current situation is more aligned with the early phases of a bearish cycle rather than its conclusion.