The Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, Matt Hougan, has released another analytical article in which he detailed his vision for Bitcoin’s price growth to $1 million. He supports his forecast by referencing the dynamics of the gold market and the overall trends in the growth of assets considered as savings vehicles.
This is reported by Business • Media
Growth Forecast: Conditions for Reaching $1 Million
According to Hougan, for Bitcoin to reach the $1 million mark, the “savings vehicle” market (which includes gold and Bitcoin) must grow to $121 trillion, with Bitcoin’s share in this market accounting for 17%. He explains that currently, for Bitcoin to achieve such a price, it would need to capture about 50% of the “savings vehicle” market, which seems unlikely under current conditions. However, considering the current market capitalization of $38 trillion ($36 trillion for gold, $1.4 trillion for Bitcoin) and Bitcoin’s limited supply, this asset has the potential for significant growth.
“If this continues, and the capitalization of ‘savings vehicles’ reaches $121 trillion, such a price for Bitcoin seems realistic to him.”
Market Dynamics and the Role of Institutional Investors
Matt Hougan emphasizes that the development of the gold market has been a key benchmark for him. Since the launch of the first gold ETF in 2004, the capitalization of this market has increased from $2.5 trillion to $36 trillion, corresponding to an average annual growth rate of 13%. Extrapolating this trend to 2036, Hougan predicts a volume of $121 trillion. Under such conditions, he believes that Bitcoin only needs to capture 17% of the market for its price to reach a million.
He also points out several factors that strengthen Bitcoin’s position:
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs have only recently started operating in the market.
- Investors and financial advisors previously recommended investing no more than 1% in this asset, but this limit has now increased to 5%.
- The largest capital holders, including sovereign funds, are showing significant interest in Bitcoin.
It is worth noting that since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early January 2024, until March 2026, Bitcoin’s capitalization has increased by approximately 55% — from $860 billion to $1.39 trillion. At its peak, the market even reached $2.5 trillion.
The expert also notes that the growth of the “savings vehicle” market over the past two decades has largely been driven by economic instability, crises, and wars. If these factors do not recur, the gold market may face a correction. At the same time, Hougan considers such forecasts too cautious, as he is convinced that the growth trend will continue and may accelerate, ultimately contributing to the rise in Bitcoin’s price.