In the third quarter of 2025, Ukrainian businesses generally maintained a positive outlook regarding business activity for the upcoming year. Respondents expressed confidence in the growth of production volumes of goods and services, as well as optimistic assessments of their companies’ development prospects, even amid a gradual increase in inflationary and currency risks.
This is reported by Business • Media
Business Expectations Index Decreased
At the same time, the Business Expectations Index for enterprises in the third quarter decreased to 102.5% compared to 103.1% in the second quarter. The main obstacles to increasing production remain military actions and their consequences. The issue of a shortage of qualified personnel also remains significant. However, the impact of currency factors on the situation has somewhat weakened.
Situation in Small and Medium-Sized Businesses
According to a study by Advanter Group, despite military risks, personnel shortages, and low business activity, Ukrainian small and medium-sized companies are gradually stabilizing their operations and remaining in the market. The Business Activity Index (UBI) for September was 37.9 points out of a possible 100. This indicates a slight increase in the index compared to July (36.1 points) and the beginning of the year (36.9 points), although the index still remains in the zone of negative expectations.
“In the third quarter of 2025, businesses maintained positive assessments of business activity over the next 12 months. Respondents continued to expect growth in the production of goods and services in Ukraine, as well as a positive outlook for the development of their enterprises amid moderate strengthening of inflationary and exchange rate expectations.”