In the first half of 2025, Russia suffered significant losses from mineral product exports: the country’s foreign exchange earnings dropped to $110.1 billion, which is $20.3 billion less than in the same period last year. The main reasons for this were the decline in global oil prices and the complete cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine.
This is reported by Business • Media
Decline in Energy Revenue and Changes in Export Structure
The overall export of Russian goods in the first half of 2025 decreased not as significantly — by $13.3 billion, totaling $195.5 billion. Despite a $3 billion reduction in foreign exchange earnings from food exports, a similar increase was recorded in the export of chemical products, machinery, and equipment. Metal supplies also increased, adding $4.2 billion. The raw material component remains dominant: over 56% of Russia’s exports consist of raw materials, although just a year ago this figure was 62.9%.
Decline in Urals Oil Prices and the Consequences of the Tariff War
The transit of Russian gas through Ukraine was halted on January 1, 2025. Additional pressure on Russian exports was exerted by the sharp drop in oil prices in early April, a consequence of the tariff war initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump. Specifically, in January, the average price of Russian Urals crude oil was $67.7 per barrel, while in June it fell to $59.8 per barrel.
“The Central Bank of Russia forecasts that average oil prices in 2025-2026 will be lower than in 2024. Consequently, the value of Russian exports this year will decrease to $410 billion after last year’s $433 billion, assuming an increase in prices for non-raw materials.”
Thus, the Russian economy remains vulnerable to fluctuations in energy prices and changes in global politics, while export earnings are declining even despite a slight decrease in the volume of goods exported.