Analysts indicate that the Russian Federation is already forced to acknowledge the end of the era of super-profits from oil and gas exports. It is expected that revenues from hydrocarbon sales for Russia will decrease both in the medium and long term. According to forecasts, by 2026, the share of oil and gas revenues in the federal budget of Russia will shrink to 23%, whereas in 2022 this figure exceeded 50%. Officially, the Russian authorities explain this trend by the depletion of low-cost raw material reserves, but they avoid discussing the consequences of aggression against Ukraine. At the same time, it is the war and the pressure of sanctions that have most significantly impacted the decline in oil and gas revenues. Last year, Russia was forced to sell energy resources with almost no profit or even at a loss.
This is reported by Business • Media
Discounts on Oil and Budget Losses for Russia
Ukrainian intelligence reports that due to the undervalued prices of oil and petroleum products, Russia has already lost trillions of dollars. According to the analytical agency Argus, in December 2025, discounts on Russian Urals oil increased to $26.45-$28.2 per barrel, compared to $20.1-$22.5 per barrel in November.
“Moscow has already lost trillions of dollars due to the undervaluation of its oil and petroleum products”.
Attempts to Preserve Exports: India and China Remain Among Buyers
After a break, at least three tankers carrying 2.2 million barrels of Russian oil have set sail for the Reliance oil refinery in India. This became possible after the partial resumption of purchases by this Indian company for its own production needs. Additionally, Russia is using icebreakers to continue exporting liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 plant. Despite Western restrictions, China remains one of the main buyers of Russian LNG, receiving supplies from this project.