In February 2026, the price of Bitcoin fell below $60,000 for the first time since April 2025, marking the most significant drop since 2022. The value of the first cryptocurrency decreased by nearly 50% from its all-time high of $126,000, recorded in October of last year. Wintermute analysts analyzed the reasons behind the sharp decline and shared their forecast for the future of the market.
This is reported by Business • Media
Main Factors Behind the Cryptocurrency Market Crash
According to Wintermute, several factors contributed to the significant decline. In particular, institutional demand for digital assets has weakened considerably, and ETF products began to experience capital outflows. Key reasons also include the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the head of the U.S. Federal Reserve, disappointing quarterly results from companies in the Mag7 group, including a 10% drop in Microsoft shares, as well as a sharp correction in the precious metals market — silver alone dropped by 40% in just three days.
Experts note that these changes caused a “delayed rotation” of capital from high-risk assets towards more secure instruments, which large investors took advantage of.
Impact of Sales, Liquidity, and the AI Sector
Wintermute emphasizes that the market situation demonstrates structural selling pressure, particularly from American participants. The premium on Coinbase remains discounted, and American counterparties actively sold Bitcoin, even amid ongoing buybacks through ETFs. The institutional demand that supported the market after the U.S. presidential elections in November 2024 has now weakened.
Additionally, analysts point out that the artificial intelligence sector is “absorbing” a significant portion of investment capital, leading to a redistribution of funds away from cryptocurrencies and the traditional market.
“Last week’s viral chart showed that Bitcoin’s performance closely mirrors that of software companies in the S&P. The real story is that AI has been absorbing available capital at the expense of everything else for months,” the report states.
Market Outlook: Prolonged Volatility and Search for Stability
Wintermute specialists emphasize that in the context of low spot trading volumes, asset prices are increasingly determined by leverage. The lack of recovery in open interest limits the potential for sharp movements in either direction, and a structural rebound requires a return of spot demand, for which there are currently no signs.
In a global context, the situation remains tense: unrealized losses in digital asset treasuries are estimated at around $25 billion and are concentrated in a few key assets. Bitcoin is currently trading below the cost basis for many treasuries, forcing them to hold assets instead of buying, effectively excluding one of the key buyers of the past year and a half. Attracting new capital under such conditions seems unlikely.
According to Wintermute, the market is currently entering a phase of unstable price discovery and increased volatility. As long as the Coinbase premium does not turn positive, ETF flows do not change direction, and base rates do not achieve stability, significant growth is difficult to anticipate.