The World Bank has released an updated forecast for the development of Ukraine’s economy, which anticipates a GDP growth of 2% in 2026. This figure is outlined in the baseline scenario, which considers the possibility of a prolonged invasion by the Russian Federation until the end of the year, as well as the impact of reforms related to Euro-integration, a new IMF program, and high defense expenditures.
This is reported by Business • Media
Investments in Reconstruction as a Driver of Economic Growth
The World Bank emphasized that a key factor for future economic growth will be investment in the country’s reconstruction. Under an optimistic scenario, if a ceasefire is established by 2027, Ukraine’s GDP growth rates could reach 4% in 2027. However, this level is 0.5 percentage points lower than the previous estimate, which is attributed to the need to allocate a significant portion of resources to defense amid prolonged uncertainty.
“If we assume that a ceasefire will be established by 2027, growth is expected to increase to 4% in 2027, which is 0.5 percentage points below the June forecast, reflecting the continued high allocation of resources related to defense amid ongoing uncertainty,” the World Bank noted.
Updated Forecasts for Russia and the Global Economy
For the Russian Federation, the World Bank has revised its GDP growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 downward. Thus, in 2025, the growth of the Russian economy was 0.9%, while in 2026 it is expected to be 0.8% (which is 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous forecast), and in 2027 – 1% (0.2 percentage points below the previous estimate).
Additionally, the World Bank has raised its forecast for global economic growth for the current year, noting that the global economy is demonstrating resilience to external challenges. Real global GDP is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2026, exceeding the June estimate of 2.4%.
At the same time, ahead of the opening of the new forum, the World Economic Forum published its annual report, the Global Risks Report 2026. The document highlights that the international community is gradually shifting from a model of cooperation to an era of intensified competition and confrontation.