The international rating agency Fitch Ratings predicts that the vast majority of Ukrainian refugees currently living in Poland will not return home even if a ceasefire agreement is reached between Ukraine and Russia.
This is reported by Business • Media
The Impact of Ukrainian Refugees on the Polish Economy
Since 2022, around one million citizens of Ukraine have found refuge in Poland. Analysts estimate that this large group of migrants has significantly influenced the revival of the local labor market and stimulated economic growth.
“We are almost certain that a large percentage of these people will actually remain in Poland and contribute to the Polish labor market and GDP growth, as well as, of course, to other macroeconomic and fiscal variables,” note Fitch analysts.
GDP Growth and Budget Deficit Forecasts
Fitch analysts expect that the growth rate of the Polish economy will be 3% in 2025, 3% in 2026, and 3.1% in 2027. The Polish government expresses even more optimistic forecasts: 3.4% in 2025, 3.5% in 2026, and 3% in 2027.
In addition, Polish officials hope that economic growth will contribute to reducing the budget deficit, which reached 6.6% of GDP last year. Poland has committed to lowering this figure to below 3% by 2028.