December could be an especially successful month for Bitcoin, according to cryptocurrency market analysts. The traditional ‘Santa Rally’ — a period of price increases at the end of the year — is expected to be amplified this time due to the easing of monetary policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve and new economic initiatives from President Donald Trump.
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Historical Trends and Potential Impact of New Stimuli
According to analytical platforms, Bitcoin has finished five of the last ten Decembers with returns ranging from 12% to 47%. This growth, known as the ‘Santa Rally’, is often associated with optimistic investor sentiment and low liquidity during the holiday season, which enhances market volatility.
“We are witnessing a shift from panic selling to strategic accumulation by long-term investors. […] This recovery trajectory, supported by anticipated Fed rate cuts and increasing institutional adoption, creates the conditions for a powerful Christmas rally,” said Nick Rak, director of LVRG Research, in a Telegram comment.
Among the factors that could bolster positive dynamics, analysts point to Donald Trump’s initiative to provide every American with $2000 as a ‘tariff dividend’, as well as the introduction of a 50-year mortgage to enhance housing affordability.
Augustin Fan, head of analytics at SignalPlus, noted that such measures are forms of liquidity easing and could support the growth of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. According to him, ‘tariff dividends’ resemble the stimuli from the COVID-19 pandemic period, which were effectively a tool for direct cash infusion into the economy.
Market Volatility and Prospects for 2026
Experts warn that Bitcoin’s volatility will remain elevated in 2026; however, this will be due to structural changes in global liquidity, institutional flows, and derivatives markets, rather than retail speculation. Rachel Lin, CEO and co-founder of SynFutures, noted that Bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. liquidity remains at 0.6-0.7. This means that any changes in central bank policies could significantly impact price dynamics.
In October, the price of Bitcoin fell by 3.7%, breaking a multi-year trend of growth during this month. The cause was a sharp market crash on the night of October 10-11. According to CryptoQuant, long-term holders sold about 405,000 BTC during October, while on November 5, accumulation addresses bought 50,000 BTC in one day.
Experts believe that if seasonality repeats and Trump’s ‘tariff dividend’ becomes an additional source of liquidity, December could turn into a period of festive optimism for the crypto market — when skepticism shifts to euphoria ahead of a new cycle. It is worth noting that on the night of November 5, the Bitcoin price dropped below $100,000, but at the time of preparing this material, it was trading at $103,070.
Daily chart of BTC/USDT on Binance. Source: TradingView.