Bitcoin and Ethereum are showing mixed dynamics as the month comes to a close, with the market closely watching reactions to macroeconomic events and the behavior of the US dollar.
This is reported by Business • Media
“Last week, the market executed a classic scenario with a local price spike upwards. Bitcoin filled the four-hour price imbalance (4H FVG) and went into the expected pullback. At the same time, the market did not fully realize the short scenario.”
Development Scenarios for Bitcoin: Pullback and Growth Potential
At the beginning of May, Bitcoin met traders’ expectations — after filling the 4-hour price imbalance, the price moved into a pullback. However, the short targets were not fully reached: some short positions were closed at $74,777, without waiting for movement towards the $71,000–$73,000 zone. Media from the Middle East and rumors of diplomatic agreements became a dampening factor, while the main momentum occurred during a period of low liquidity.
Currently, traders’ attention is focused on US macroeconomic data and the results of the month-end close. The key zone for Bitcoin remains the $78,000–$78,500 block. Two main scenarios are possible here:
- Pullback after testing resistance: In the case of seller weakness, the price may return to correction, realizing the short targets from previous reviews.
- Breakout and further growth: If the market consolidates above $78,500, space will open for a new impulse. However, macro data and the behavior of the Dollar Index (DXY), which currently remains strong, are important benchmarks.
Ethereum: Technical Levels and Movement Options
Ethereum currently appears more structured compared to Bitcoin: the price tested last month’s low but failed to consolidate below $2,000. Several probable scenarios remain:
- Pullback from highs: Interaction with the zone above $2,200 and last week’s highs may trigger a correction, especially if ETH shows relative weakness against BTC.
- Recovery through imbalance closure: If the price holds above $2,050, an aggressive recovery scenario is possible, provided there is buyer strength.
- Deeper correction: It is possible that ETH will test levels below $2,000 again, repeating the previous movement model.
Impact of the Dollar Index and New Macro Trends
The market is currently dominated by expectations regarding the decisions of the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh, while the DXY dollar index is in a phase of uncertainty. The DXY price is compressing between local highs and an unfilled imbalance on the four-hour chart. Scenarios for DXY:
- Manipulative rise, then correction: In the case of a false breakout of the highs, a sharp pullback may occur, which would be a positive signal for the crypto market.
- Liquidity gathering from below and growth: If the index closes the lower imbalance and receives support from macro indicators, a breakout to new highs is possible.
- Unretraced upward impulse: If inflation expectations strengthen, DXY may move towards the 100.200+ zone, creating pressure on risk assets.
Key Events of the Week for the Cryptocurrency Market
- Monday: Memorial Day in the US — markets are closed, increasing the risk of manipulation in the crypto market.
- Tuesday, 17:00: Release of the CB Consumer Confidence Index, which will provide insight into the public’s reaction to inflation.
- Thursday, 15:30: Release of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and US GDP data. These indicators may determine the volatility of the week, as well as the Fed’s reaction to macro signals.
Traders warn that due to month-end closing and a busy macro block from the US, the market is in a state of increased volatility. It is advisable to avoid hasty decisions and act only after confirming the price movement structure. Special attention should be paid to key liquidity zones, as well as synchronizing the dynamics of altcoins with Bitcoin’s behavior. Risk management remains a priority.
Disclaimer: This material is not financial advice or a call to action. All analytics reflect the author’s private opinion.