The betting platform Polymarket is seeing a significant increase in expectations regarding a potential shutdown of the US government in 2025. According to the latest figures, 76% of users believe that the government will cease operations this year. This scenario has gained relevance due to Congress’s failure to pass a temporary funding bill.
This is reported by Business • Media
Political Crisis in Congress and Positions of the Parties
On September 19, the US Senate blocked both proposed plans for temporary government funding – neither the Republican nor the Democratic options received enough support. After the vote failed, senators went on recess until September 29, further complicating the situation and increasing the likelihood of a government shutdown. The political struggle revolves around healthcare spending: Democrats insist on additional funding and propose a $1.5 trillion package that includes $350 billion for Obamacare tax subsidies and restoring Medicaid funding. Republicans, on the other hand, advocate for a clean short-term resolution without new spending, limited to November 21.
“We will continue negotiations with the Democrats, but I think the country may end up in isolation for a certain period of time,” said President Donald Trump at the Presidential Palace.
Additionally, President Trump previously accused Democrats of wanting to “shut down the country.” Senate Majority Leader John Thune emphasized: “The choice is quite obvious. Either the government gets funding through a clean, short-term continuing resolution, or there will be a government shutdown. That’s the choice the Democrats have.”
Market Reaction and Polymarket User Sentiment
At the time of publication, 64% of Polymarket users had bet on the likelihood of a government shutdown occurring by October 1. Financial markets are reacting cautiously, viewing the potential shutdown as another round of political bargaining in Washington. However, experts note that this time the positions of the parties are much more rigid, and the risk of a prolonged government shutdown is increasing.
According to the latest data, the price of Bitcoin stands at $111,541. Meanwhile, the correction in the cryptocurrency market has led to the liquidation of traders’ futures positions worth $400 million in a single day. It is worth noting that on September 17, the US Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate by 0.25% effective December 2024, which positively impacted the dynamics of the cryptocurrency market.
