Scandal in the US Over Bets on Ayatollah Khamenei’s Departure: Kalshi Returns Commissions

The prediction platform Kalshi has found itself at the center of a major scandal due to financial bets related to the departure of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

This is reported by Business • Media

The controversial situation arose after discussions began in the US surrounding a Kalshi contract dedicated to the question: “Has Ali Khamenei left his position as Supreme Leader?” This occurred amid reports of his death due to American-Israeli strikes. The contract was active from January 9, 2026, and generated over $50 million in turnover, with approximately $20 million on February 28, when news of Khamenei’s death emerged.

Kalshi Returns Commissions and Explains Market Rules

Kalshi’s CEO Tarek Mansour emphasized that the market was organized to eliminate the possibility of profiting directly from a person’s death. According to him, in cases where the outcome of a contract may be related to death, Kalshi establishes special rules that prevent profit from the event of death itself. Positions that were opened after the confirmation of Khamenei’s death were canceled, and all funds will be returned to users. Additionally, the platform promised to refund all commission fees collected from this contract.

“We don’t list markets directly tied to death. When there are markets where potential outcomes involve death, we design the rules to prevent people from profiting from death. That is what we did here”.

According to Kalshi’s rules, in the event of a public official’s death, positions were closed at the last quote before the confirmation of the event, rather than automatically on a “Yes” or “No” basis. Mansour clarified that the price was fixed at 1:14 PM Eastern Time, and all trades after that time were canceled and returned to users.

Criticism of “Death Markets” and New Regulatory Attention

The scandal has sparked a wave of criticism from the public and experts who have deemed “death markets” unacceptable. The discussions intensified due to discrepancies in wording: documents for the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) stated “the last trade price before death,” while the market page indicated “before confirmed news of death,” leading to several hours of uncertainty for traders. Former SEC employee Amanda Fisher stated that this is essentially a “market based on murder.”

Criticism intensified after Kalshi’s post on social media platform X about the increased probability of Khamenei’s departure rising to 68%. Some experts believe that such markets should not exist on regulated platforms. Furthermore, they recalled a similar precedent with a contract regarding Jimmy Carter’s presence at Donald Trump’s inauguration: after Carter’s death, the contract was closed with the answer “No,” which critics argue contradicts Kalshi’s current statements about the unacceptability of such bets.

Kalshi’s CEO emphasized that the platform does not list contracts directly related to death, and the contentious market only pertained to a change in political status. He noted that such markets have significant economic and geopolitical importance. Meanwhile, debates surrounding the ethics and acceptability of such contracts in the US continue.

The dispute occurs amid heightened regulatory scrutiny of the prediction market industry. Earlier, a group of Democratic senators urged the CFTC to ban contracts that are contingent on a person’s death. Industry coalitions, including Kalshi, support the position that such markets should not exist within regulated platforms. Last year, trading volume on Kalshi exceeded $44 billion.

The scandal highlighted the complexity of regulating prediction markets and the need for strict ethical standards for such platforms.