Economists from the Institute for Economic Research and the German Economic Team have revised their estimates for the growth rate of Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) for 2025 downward. According to the updated forecast, GDP is expected to increase by 2%, which is worse than the previous forecast released in February, which anticipated growth of 2.9%. For 2026, experts predict an acceleration of growth to 2.8%, although it was previously expected that this figure would reach 3.2%.
This is reported by Business • Media
Reasons for the Economic Forecast Adjustment
The main reasons for the revision of the forecast are weaker results in key sectors of the Ukrainian economy: the agricultural sector, transportation, and industry. Despite this, analysts predict some acceleration of economic growth in the second half of 2025. They believe this will be supported by the activation of industrial production and the expansion of trade.
“Overall, the recovery of the economy is limited due to the continuation of the full-scale war, economists note.”
Key Factors Influencing the Economy
The main drivers of economic growth from the demand side remain private consumption, as well as investments in defense and the reconstruction of the country. At the same time, experts emphasize that large-scale economic recovery is not yet observed. On the supply side, trade provides a positive contribution; however, labor shortages and logistics issues remain significant challenges for businesses.
According to the updated forecast, inflation in 2025 will be 13.2%, and in 2026 it will decrease to 6.7%. International financial assistance fully covers Ukraine’s funding needs for the current year, but in 2026, the expected volume of external support is currently $10-15 billion less than the country’s needs.