The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) notes that within the framework of the 18th sanctions package, the European Commission is considering the possibility of lowering the price cap on oil from Russia from the current $60 to $45 per barrel. Such a move could significantly impact Russia’s financial revenues from energy resource exports.
This is reported by Бізнес • Медіа
Potential Decrease in Oil Export Revenues
According to CREA’s calculations, if the new price cap is implemented and strictly adhered to, the Russian Federation’s revenues from oil exports would decrease by 27% in May, equivalent to €2.8 billion. This forecast is based on the conditions of full compliance with the price cap.
“Since the imposition of sanctions in December 2022 until the end of May 2025, full compliance with the price cap would reduce Russia’s export revenues by 11% (€39.01 billion). Only in May 2025 would full compliance with the price cap reduce revenues by 4% (approximately €0.47 billion).”
The Effect of Further Reducing the Price Cap
If the price cap is lowered even further—to $30 per barrel, which CREA notes remains twice the cost of extraction in Russia—then Russia’s export revenues would have decreased by 40%, or €142 billion, from the introduction of sanctions until the end of May 2025. In May alone, the revenue reduction could reach 36% (€3.8 billion) in the case of strict adherence to the new cap.