The International Energy Agency (IEA) has significantly reduced its growth estimate for global oil demand in 2025, now projecting it at 726 thousand barrels per day. This marks a substantial decrease from the previous forecast of 1.031 million barrels, representing a reduction of 305 thousand barrels per day in just one month. Such changes in forecasts are linked to the deteriorating outlook for the global economy due to the sudden escalation of trade tensions that began in early April.
This is reported by Business • Media
According to the agency, global oil demand in 2025 will reach 103.54 million barrels per day, indicating a worsening of forecasts due to trade conflicts, particularly between the United States and China. This could negatively impact global energy markets and the economy as a whole.
Russia’s Revenue Loss Due to Decreased Oil Exports
At this time, Russian exporters are already feeling the effects of the trade war, particularly between Russia and the United States. Oil export flows from all Russian ports have dropped to 3.13 million barrels per day as of April 13, the lowest level since February 2025. This is approximately 320 thousand barrels less than in the recent peak period. The gross value of crude oil shipments has also fallen to its lowest level since July 2023 — down about 6%, to 1.29 billion dollars per week.
“The decline in oil exports from Russia is occurring against the backdrop of the trade war between the U.S. and China, which significantly affects the country’s revenue from oil supplies.”
Analysts warn that such trends could have long-term consequences for the Russian economy and the global oil market.