The National Bank of Ukraine has decided to maintain the discount rate at 15.5% for the fourth consecutive meeting. This decision was announced on September 11, emphasizing:
This is reported by Business • Media
“Inflation is on a downward trajectory, but it is still high,” the regulator explained its position.
Inflation Dynamics and Key Factors for Slowdown
As of August, inflation in Ukraine stood at 13.2% year-on-year. The slowdown in price growth has been made possible by several key factors:
- The arrival of the new harvest has led to a decrease in the rate of price increases for raw products, which has also affected the prices of processed food items.
- Core inflation, which encompasses the services sector and non-food goods, has decreased to 11.4% due to the actions of the National Bank and improvements in the labor market situation.
- The supply of labor has increased, and the gap between expected and actual wages is narrowing.
NBU Forecasts and Risks for the Economy
According to the July macroeconomic forecast, the beginning of the cycle of discount rate reductions is anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2025. At the same time, the National Bank warns that if inflationary risks materialize or intensify, such as an escalation of hostilities, increased destruction, or additional budget expenditures, the process of rate reduction may be postponed. If necessary, the regulator is prepared to take additional measures to stabilize the economic situation.