The Board of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has decided to maintain the discount rate at 15.5% per annum starting from April 18. This decision was made in response to deteriorating forecasts regarding inflation and economic growth for 2025, as well as considering the increased uncertainty in both global and domestic economies.
This is reported by Бізнес • Медіа
Reasons and Objectives of the NBU’s Decision on the Rate
In addressing the challenges, the regulator notes that this decision will support the stability of the foreign exchange market, maintain control over inflation expectations, and gradually reduce inflation to the target level of 5% in the long term.
«This decision will contribute to maintaining the stability of the foreign exchange market, preserving control over inflation expectations, and gradually reducing inflation to 5% over the policy horizon,» the NBU emphasized.
Given the significant level of uncertainty that has intensified in recent months, the regulator plans to respond flexibly to changes in the balance of risks regarding price dynamics and inflation expectations. The NBU has also revised its inflation forecasts for 2025, increasing it from 8.4% to 8.7%, while maintaining expectations for a return to the target level of 5% in 2026.
Economic Prospects and External Factors
According to the regulator, in the first three months of 2025, the economy is showing moderate growth, particularly due to the destruction of gas infrastructure and increased demand for gas imports. Additionally, a significant restraining factor is the shortage of skilled labor, which is a consequence of the war.
“The escalation of trade tensions globally has not yet impacted the Ukrainian economy; however, in the future, they may hinder its recovery. Tariff wars are likely to weaken external demand for Ukrainian goods, although demand for agricultural products will remain stable even amid a cooling global economy,” the regulator’s statement reads.
It is expected that in 2025, Ukraine’s GDP will grow by 3.1%, compared to previous forecasts of 3.6%. The main factors contributing to this will be increased harvests and a reduction in the electricity deficit, which, along with substantial defense orders, will support the industry. In 2026 and 2027, GDP growth rates are expected to accelerate to 3.7–3.9%. Ukraine is already demonstrating positive results in foreign trade, as in the first quarter of 2025, goods exports amounted to nearly 9.9 billion dollars, and in March exceeded 3.6 billion dollars, which is 4.5% more than in the same period last year and 18% more than in February.