The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has downgraded its assessment of global economic prospects due to the increase in tariffs in the US and the consequences of Donald Trump’s trade policy. Analysts note that the growth rate of the global economy in 2025 and 2026 will fall to 2.9% compared to 3.3% last year.
This is reported by Business • Media
US Tariffs Impact Global Economy
Experts estimate that the rise in trade costs, particularly in countries that are increasing tariffs, will contribute to rising inflation and create additional challenges for financial stability. As a result, the pace of economic development in key global regions is slowing down.
The OECD forecasts that the US economy will grow by only 1.6% in 2025 and by 1.5% in 2026 if the new tariffs remain in place. Meanwhile, China’s economy is expected to increase by 4.7% this year and by 4.3% in 2026. In the European Union, growth is anticipated to be around 1% in 2025 and up to 1.2% the following year.
Ukraine’s Economic Dynamics Remain Weak
Regarding Ukraine, OECD experts believe that GDP growth, which slowed to 2.9% in 2024 (compared to 5.3% last year), will decrease to 2% in 2025 and remain at that level in 2026.
“Growth will be supported by international aid, defense spending, and domestic private demand. However, the labor shortage will continue to restrain growth, and uncertainty remains extremely high.”
Thus, the prospects for the global and Ukrainian economies remain extremely cautious, with key risk factors including trade tensions, inflationary pressure, and structural issues in the labor market.