The countries participating in the OPEC+ agreement have decided to suspend the planned increase in oil production quotas. This decision was made at the request of Russia, which is facing difficulties in boosting energy exports due to international sanctions.
This is reported by Business • Media
Position of Key OPEC+ Players and Market Situation
According to sources within OPEC+, the initiative to halt the increase in quotas received support from Saudi Arabia as well. This is linked to the traditional decline in oil demand in the first quarter of the year, as well as growing concerns about a potential oversupply in the global market in 2026. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has been particularly vocal in advocating for a temporary pause in increasing quotas.
The implemented pause will allow OPEC+ to more carefully assess the impact of sanctions on the Russian oil industry. According to OPEC’s own forecasts, the balance between oil demand and supply is expected to remain stable in 2025. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency predicts that the market could face a surplus of around 4 million barrels per day, which accounts for nearly 4% of global demand. Most experts also lean towards the possibility of an oversupply.
Impact of Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports
Recently, the United States announced a new package of sanctions against the largest oil companies in Russia, set to take effect on November 20. According to Ukraine’s presidential commissioner for sanctions policy, Vladislav Vlasiyuk, the volumes of contracts for future supplies of Russian oil to India and China have already decreased by approximately 20%.
At the same time, as he explained, the results of these sanctions will become more apparent in a month to a month and a half. Then it will be clear how much the physical volume of Russian oil supplies to India and China will decrease, as well as how much Russia’s export revenue will decline.
Additionally, Switzerland has joined in strengthening restrictions against Russia, supporting the 18th package of EU sanctions and participating in the restrictions concerning Belarus.