According to forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the consequences of Ukrainian drone attacks will significantly impact the operations of oil refineries in the Russian Federation at least until mid-2026. It is expected that by June next year, Russian refineries will be able to process just under 5 million barrels of oil per day. Only after this is a gradual recovery of volumes to 5.4 million barrels per day possible.
This is reported by Business • Media
Impact of Attacks on Exports and Russia’s Revenues
According to the IEA, drone attacks have severely disrupted the oil refining sector, forcing Russia to increase crude oil exports to 5.1 million barrels per day — the highest level since May 2023. However, despite the increase in physical exports, the state’s revenues from oil sales abroad have fallen to their lowest level in the past three months, amounting to $13.4 billion. The reason is the decrease in the export of petroleum products, which brought Russia $440 million less in revenue. In September, Russian fuel supplies abroad dropped to 2.4 million barrels per day, the lowest level in the last decade, except for the Covid-19 pandemic period in April 2020.
Dependence on Fuel Imports is Growing
According to estimates by Reuters, maritime exports of Russian petroleum products in September decreased by 17.1% compared to August, totaling 7.58 million tons. Meanwhile, according to information from Ukrainian foreign intelligence, by the end of the current year, Russia may become dependent on fuel imports at a level of up to 60%.
According to the IEA, the consequences of Ukrainian UAV attacks will hinder oil processing at Russian oil refineries (refineries) at least until mid-2026.