The economy of the Russian Federation has officially entered a phase of stagnation, exacerbating financial and social problems at all levels. According to information from the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service, economic indicators in Russia are showing a rapid deterioration – after a GDP growth of 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2024, this figure shrank to 0.6% in the third quarter of 2025. As a result, the government and the Central Bank of Russia can no longer conceal the systemic crisis in the economy.
This is reported by Business • Media
Critical Reduction in Oil and Gas Revenues and Budget Deficit
The budget deficit has become palpable at both federal and regional levels. Forecasts suggest that Russians will have to adapt to economic constraints at least until 2042. A key factor in the escalation of problems has been the sharp decline in revenues from oil and gas exports: in 2026, these revenues are expected to decrease by 43% compared to the levels of 2019. This creates long-term risks for the country’s financial stability and leads to serious degradation of the economy.
“Such a trajectory indicates not temporary difficulties, but a deep and prolonged degradation of the economy. Russia is entering a decade where recovery is unlikely, and financial losses are inevitable,” commented the intelligence agency.
Decline in Parallel Imports and Deepening Isolation
The last channel for the supply of Western goods to Russia – the so-called “parallel imports” – is also experiencing significant reductions. According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia, from January to November 2025, the volume of imports through this mechanism amounted to $20.9 billion, which is 45% less than in the same period of 2024 ($37.9 billion). This indicates an intensification of the isolation of the Russian economy and an increase in the deficit of essential goods.
Western experts also note that the war against Ukraine is not bringing Putin strategic advantages, but only exacerbating economic, domestic, and international problems. In 2026, economic, military, and diplomatic pressure on Russia will increase, leading to an even greater decline in revenues from energy resources, an increase in the budget deficit, social instability, and public discontent.