Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased by 1% in July 2025 compared to the same period last year. One of the key reasons for this result was a significant drop in real gross added value (GAV) in agriculture, which fell by 26%. This is related to a reduction in harvest collection and a decrease in yield compared to July of last year. The mining industry also recorded a decline of 10%, primarily explained by losses in the coal sector, although gas extraction improved due to active efforts to restore the sector.
This is reported by Business • Media
Dynamics of Key Economic Sectors
Despite the overall decline, some sectors demonstrated positive dynamics. In particular, the manufacturing industry saw an increase in real GAV, rising to 1.4% in July from 1% in June, driven by rising demand and active defense orders. The trade sector maintained an almost unchanged growth rate of 2.6%, consistent with the previous month’s figures.
Transport Situation and Economic Development Forecasts
At the same time, the transport sector experienced a decrease in real GAV of nearly 9%. The main factors were a reduction in railway transportation volumes and the cessation of Russian gas transit to European Union countries. It is noted that “Ukrzaliznytsia” is transporting fewer grains as stocks of these crops have been depleted. Alongside this, there was a gradual recovery in the extraction of construction materials.
Analysts have downgraded their GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 2%, while for 2026, they expect a growth of 2.8%.
According to the results of the second quarter of 2025, the growth of Ukraine’s real GDP is estimated at 1.7% year-on-year. However, economic experts have revised their forecasts and expect a more moderate pace of economic recovery in the coming years.