According to analysts from the investment company ICU, the Ukrainian economy has entered a phase of slow growth starting from the third quarter of 2024. It is expected that in 2025, GDP growth will be around 3%, with no significant acceleration in recovery rates anticipated due to the need for a gradual reduction of the budget deficit and limitations on government spending.
This is reported by Бізнес • Медіа
Inflation and Exchange Rate Forecast
Annual inflation is expected to start slowing sharply from June 2025, as last year’s base remains high and the supply of agricultural products increases. By the end of the year, consumer price growth is expected to be within 7–8%. Ukraine will receive over 50 billion dollars in foreign aid this year, which will contribute to a substantial increase in the NBU’s foreign reserves and strengthen the stability of the hryvnia exchange rate.
It is estimated that by the end of 2025, the exchange rate of the hryvnia will be approximately 43.5 UAH per dollar, and the budget deficit will be almost entirely financed externally.
Financial and Economic Outlook
The National Bank of Ukraine will maintain the discount rate until September 2025, and then is likely to lower it three times by 50 basis points by the end of the year to support the economy. These measures will contribute to the stabilization of the financial sector and stimulate economic activity in the country.