In the next decade, Ukraine’s population may significantly decrease. According to the president of the Kyiv School of Economics, Tymofiy Milovanov, the pessimistic scenario predicts a reduction in the number of citizens to 10–15 million people.
This is reported by Business • Media
Optimistic Forecast: The Return of Ukrainians and EU Prospects
However, the expert also presented a more positive scenario. If hostilities end soon and the country continues its course towards integration with the European Union, a significant portion of Ukrainians currently abroad may return. In this case, according to the expert’s estimates, the country’s population could stabilize at around 35–40 million.
“According to the optimistic scenario – if the war stops, we will move towards the EU – people will gradually return. Because everyone in Ukraine will be able to become who they want to be. That is, there will be about 35-40 million”
Challenges for the Economy and the Role of Labor Migrants
Alongside this, Milovanov emphasizes that after the war, Ukraine will need to attract around 10 million labor migrants. The recruitment of workforce, primarily for manual labor positions, will be crucial for stabilizing the economy, as there is already a critical imbalance between the number of pensioners and working citizens.
Among the main tasks for the state, the expert highlights winning the war and creating a high-productivity, competitive society of European standards. Milovanov stressed that for the country’s recovery, not only demographic but also structural economic changes are important.