In July 2025, the business activity recovery index in Ukraine demonstrated a decline for the second consecutive month, dropping from 0.09 to 0.05. This indicates a gradual slowdown in the growth rate of businesses, although positive shifts in the structure of enterprises are also noted.
This is reported by Business • Media
Key Business Development Trends
Compared to last year, the share of companies operating at full or nearly full capacity has significantly increased: in July 2025, this figure reached 63% compared to 45% in July 2024. There is also a decrease in the level of uncertainty among entrepreneurs — the share of those who could not predict the state of their business two years ahead has decreased from 37.4% to 31.4%.
Many enterprises are demonstrating optimistic plans regarding production volumes: the number of those not expecting any changes has decreased, and the share of businesses planning to expand their activities has increased. Furthermore, inflationary processes are slowing down: only 38.9% of enterprises anticipate an increase in raw material prices, compared to 42.8% previously, and some even foresee a decrease. Problems with electricity supply are no longer the main obstacle for businesses — only 6% of companies consider this a significant challenge.
Main Challenges for Enterprises
Despite the positive trends, businesses are facing a number of serious challenges. In particular, the average duration of the new orders portfolio has shortened to 4.5 months, indicating weakened demand. Pessimism regarding exports has also intensified: the share of companies expecting an increase in exports has slightly decreased, while the number forecasting a decline has increased.
Risks and staffing issues have increased: security concerns have once again become a key issue for 57% of enterprises, alongside labor shortages. While finding qualified employees has become somewhat easier, the situation regarding unskilled workers has worsened — the corresponding index has risen.
“In July, the Business Activity Recovery Index worsened for the second consecutive month, dropping from 0.09 to 0.05, according to data from the Institute of Economic Research (IER).”
Thus, despite some stabilization of certain indicators, enterprises remain in conditions of uncertainty and face new challenges that impact their operations in 2025.