Analysts at Bernstein predict rapid growth in the market capitalization of the USDC stablecoin issued by Circle, following the recent implementation of new stablecoin market regulations in the US. They estimate that by the end of 2027, the volume of USDC could triple — from $76 billion to $220 billion, which would account for nearly a third of the global market.
This is reported by Business • Media
Circle to Gain Advantage from Federal Regulation
Bernstein experts believe that Circle will be a key beneficiary of the legislative changes enacted under the GENIUS Act in July. The new regulation establishes a federal framework for “payment stablecoins,” restricts the activities of foreign issuers, and defines such tokens as digital money rather than securities or deposits.
“Digital dollars will become the monetary infrastructure of the internet, and Circle is in the best position due to its first-mover advantage,” the experts noted, reaffirming their “above average” rating and a target price for Circle’s shares at $230, which is 67% higher than the figure as of October 14, 2025 ($137.47), according to Yahoo! Finance.
Analysts emphasize that high regulatory standards favor American issuers. Circle already provides full reserve coverage in the form of cash and US bonds, conducts daily disclosures about its reserves, and undergoes independent audits. USDC has been labeled as the “largest regulated stablecoin in the world,” making it ideally suited for partnerships with banks and payment services that do not have their own tokens.
The Stablecoin Market Continues to Evolve Rapidly
According to estimates from CoinMarketCap, Tether (USDT) remains the leader in the global market with a 62% share ($180 billion), while USDC holds 29% ($76 billion). Other participants — USDe, DAI, and USD1 — have market capitalizations of $12.6 billion, $5.4 billion, and $2.7 billion, respectively.
Circle’s model, which strictly adheres to regulatory requirements, along with its partnerships with giants like Coinbase, Binance, and OKX, has provided the company with a significant liquidity advantage. According to analysts, USDC is already integrated across 28 blockchains, and the transaction volume for the first half of 2025 has risen to $3 trillion — a 120% increase compared to 2024.
Bernstein expects the total stablecoin market to reach $670 billion by the end of 2027, and it could grow to $4 trillion by 2035. A significant portion of this market — around $220 billion — will be occupied by Circle due to integrations with Fiserv, FIS, Corpay, Shopify, and other companies.
Analysts also note that new players, such as PayPal (PYUSD) and the US division of Tether (USAT), face insufficient liquidity at the outset and a limited number of integrations with exchanges.
Bernstein points out that Circle’s profitability remains dependent on interest income from reserves. However, the expected decline in rates to 3% by the end of 2027 (down from 4.25% currently) should be offset by increased revenues from payments, cross-chain transfers, and scaling infrastructure. The share of such non-financial income has already grown from 1% in 2024 to 4% in the first half of 2025.
Forecasts indicate that Circle’s annual revenue growth will reach 47% by 2027, while the volume of USDC will grow by 71%. In the strategic perspective, the company will maintain about 30% of the market through the development of the Circle Payments Network and its own blockchain, Arc.
Previously, Goldman Sachs announced a “golden boom” in the stablecoin market with a trillion-dollar capitalization, and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen predicted that the market for dollar stablecoins could grow to $2 trillion and beyond in the coming years.