Experts predict a further decline in inflation in Ukraine throughout 2026, which could lay the groundwork for a significant easing of the monetary policy of the National Bank of Ukraine.
This is reported by Business • Media
Inflation Dynamics and Forecasts for the First Half
According to analytical assessments, the monthly slowdown in annual inflation is expected to continue at least until June 2026. Specialists do not rule out that by March or April, inflation rates may drop below 6%. The main factors contributing to weak inflationary pressure include slow growth in household incomes, a sufficient harvest from the previous year, difficulties in exporting food products due to damage to port infrastructure, stability in utility tariffs, and limited depreciation of the hryvnia.
Expectations for the Second Half and Impact on NBU Policy
At the same time, in the second half of 2026, it is anticipated that annual inflation will begin to gradually rise due to the low comparative base from the previous year. Analysts believe that by the end of 2026, inflation could reach 6.3%.
“We expect it to be 6.3% by the end of this year,” say the experts.
The easing of inflationary pressure prompts the National Bank of Ukraine to consider the possibility of transitioning to a cycle of monetary policy easing. In particular, it is forecasted that by the end of January, the discount rate may be reduced by 50 basis points to 15%. Throughout 2026, a total rate reduction of 200 basis points is expected, bringing it down to 13.5%.