Analysts expect that in 2025, the price of Bitcoin could exceed $122,000 if three main factors come into play: an increase in the money supply, the activation of spot ETFs, and the return of retail investors.
This is reported by Business • Media
The Impact of Money Supply and ETFs on Bitcoin Dynamics
According to experts, a significant boost to Bitcoin’s growth will come from an increase in global liquidity. In July, the M2 money supply in the 21 largest central banks in the world reached a record $55.5 trillion. At the same time, the U.S. federal budget deficit amounted to $1.3 trillion in just nine months. This creates a favorable backdrop for the growth of the cryptocurrency’s value.
The second factor is the development of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. Currently, the assets of such funds amount to $150 billion, while gold ETFs have recorded $198 billion. As experts note, if the volumes of Bitcoin ETFs surpass those of gold funds, it could solidify Bitcoin’s status as a reserve asset rather than just a speculative instrument.
Experts emphasized that when Bitcoin ETFs exceed gold in asset volume, it will help “solidify its status as a reserve asset rather than a risky instrument.”
From the beginning of 2024 to June 2025, Bitcoin ETFs attracted $45 billion, while gold funds attracted $34 billion. This signals a significant increase in investor interest in digital gold and a growing distrust of the traditional monetary system.
The Dynamics of Retail Investment and Political Decisions
The third driver is the return of retail investors. Despite Bitcoin’s 116% increase over the year, user activity on platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood remains below the peak levels of November 2024. However, experts believe that the situation could change in 2025, particularly due to political moves.
A significant influence will come from the recent executive order by U.S. President Donald Trump, which allows cryptocurrencies and alternative assets to be included in 401(k) retirement plans. As noted by 0G Labs CEO Michael Heinrich, this move potentially “unlocks trillions of retirement capital for Bitcoin.”
If all three factors are realized—expansion of the money supply, dominance of Bitcoin ETFs over gold, and increased interest from retail investors—Bitcoin has every chance not only to exceed $122,000 but also to set new historical highs in 2025.
As of the time of preparing this material, according to TradingView, the price of Bitcoin stands at $118,150.
Previously, analysts at Bernstein predicted that by 2026, Bitcoin could reach $200,000.