The National Bank of Ukraine predicts that by 2025, the net outflow of the population abroad will reach approximately 200,000 people. According to the regulator’s estimates, this trend will continue into 2026, and the return of citizens to Ukraine will only begin in 2027, when, according to the latest forecasts, about 100,000 Ukrainians will return home. Previous estimates had anticipated that this figure would reach 500,000.
This is reported by Business • Media
Reasons for Emigration and Prospects for Return
Experts link the outflow of the population primarily to the ongoing high security risks. Among the key factors driving migration are the regular shelling of the entire territory of Ukraine by Russia and the increasing number of terrorist attacks against civilians. At the same time, the possibility of staying in EU countries for an extended period or obtaining a stable residency status may deter Ukrainians from returning home in the near future.
Among the reasons for emigration are the ongoing high security risks, including shelling by Russia across the entire territory of Ukraine and terrorist attacks against the civilian population.
Statistics on Population Outflow Since the Beginning of the War
Since the onset of the full-scale war, around three million citizens have left Ukraine and have not returned. In 2025 alone, 250,000 Ukrainians who crossed the border did not come back. However, this figure is 37.5% lower than for the same period last year.
Thus, the demographic situation in Ukraine continues to remain challenging, and the large-scale outflow of citizens abroad is likely to persist at least until 2027.