The Russian Federation is significantly expanding its production and stockpiles of ammunition, which may indicate preparations for possible new wars. According to Estonian intelligence, during 2022–2023, the Russian military-industrial complex resumed operations at previously unused production facilities for the manufacture of large-caliber ammunition.
This is reported by Business • Media
Increase in production and import of ammunition
In 2025, Russian enterprises were able to produce over 7 million shells, mortar mines, and rockets, while in 2024 this figure was 4.5 million units. Compared to 2021, the production of artillery ammunition has increased more than 17 times. In addition to domestic production, Russia imported another 5–7 million shells from Iran and North Korea. North Korean ammunition played a particularly significant role in the second half of 2025, providing approximately half of the needs of the occupying forces on the front line.
“In light of this, Russia is likely to be able to replenish part of its strategic reserves of artillery ammunition even during the war against Ukraine. For the Kremlin, maintaining such reserves is almost certainly a critical element in planning for potential future conflicts,” the document states.
NATO’s Response: Operation Arctic Guardian
At the same time, NATO countries have intensified their actions in response to the increased military presence of Russia. The Alliance has launched a large-scale operation, “Arctic Guardian,” in the Arctic to prevent Russian nuclear submarines from entering the waters of the Atlantic Ocean. To achieve this goal, NATO is enhancing maritime patrols in the strategically important Faroe-Icelandic gap, which runs between Greenland, Iceland, and the United Kingdom. In the event of a breakthrough by Russian submarines into the Atlantic, this could significantly reduce the flight time of nuclear missiles to the United States.