Analysts note that the European Union experiences an annual shortage of rapeseed of about 5–6 million tons, which is traditionally covered by imports, primarily from Ukraine. However, Ukrainian agricultural producers are gradually shifting towards domestic processing, which may significantly reduce the supply of raw materials to the EU.
This is reported by Business • Media
Change in Ukraine’s Export Model and Its Impact on the Market
Before the onset of the full-scale war, about 95% of Ukrainian rapeseed was exported, with annual supplies to the EU reaching 3.5 million tons. This season, the situation has changed: Ukraine has already exported 314,000 tons of rapeseed oil to EU countries, equivalent to approximately 750,000 tons of seeds. Meanwhile, the export of the seeds themselves has decreased to 1.3 million tons.
“The EU faces an annual rapeseed seed shortage of 5-6 million tons, traditionally covered by imports, primarily from Ukraine. At the same time, Ukrainian producers are increasingly shifting towards domestic processing, which may reduce the supply of raw materials to the EU.”
Expansion of Processing Capacities in Poland and Market Competition
In Europe, particularly in Poland, processing capacities are actively being expanded: they currently amount to about 4 million tons of rapeseed per year, while domestic production of the crop only reaches 3.5 million tons. This trend poses a dual challenge for European processors. On one hand, the EU risks losing a stable supply of rapeseed from Ukraine, and on the other, it faces competition from Ukrainian rapeseed oil, which is already entering the European market.
In the long run, these factors may lead to a structural raw material shortage in the European Union and intensify competition between European and Ukrainian producers of high value-added products.