Renowned crypto analyst PlanB shared his insights on the future peak price of Bitcoin, emphasizing that the four-year cycle does not guarantee reaching maximum values in October 2025. According to the expert, market conditions indicate the likelihood of a peak value being established between 2026 and 2028.
This is reported by Business • Media
Views on Bitcoin Cycles and Market Signals
PlanB points out that some traders believe a local maximum has already been reached at the level of $126,000, expecting further price declines below $100,000 in 2026. However, the analyst himself does not share this view, stressing the fallacy of predictions based solely on the four-year halving cycle.
According to PlanB, the Stock-to-Flow model reflects only the average price of the asset throughout the cycle, not its maxima or minima. The experience of the three previous cycles indicates that the six months before and eighteen months after the halving were indeed profitable, but this is insufficient for accurate long-term forecasting.
Key Technical Signals and Market Factors
The expert emphasized that the peak of Bitcoin may not occur in 2025, but significantly later—in 2026, 2027, or even 2028. He attributes this to a fundamental phase transformation of the market that has yet to occur in the current cycle.
Among the main technical signals that, according to PlanB, indicate the potential for a new “big jump,” are:
- the relative strength index (RSI) has not yet reached the mark of 80 and above;
- the realized price has not deviated from the 200-week moving average.
He also added that either the “big jump” is still ahead, or the market has transitioned into a more stable mode under the control of institutions and funds. In both cases, this is positive for Bitcoin, and a major bear market without a strong jump is impossible, the expert concluded
It is worth noting that Citigroup previously stated Bitcoin’s dependence on stock market dynamics.