The analytical company ARK Invest has revised its long-term forecasts for the value of Bitcoin, raising them to $2.4 million per coin in a bullish scenario that anticipates significant price growth by 2030. In a bearish scenario, the price could drop to $500,000. Key factors driving this growth, according to experts, include institutional interest, global adoption of digital assets, and increasing demand in developing countries.
This is reported by Business • Media
Future Scenarios and Key Price Growth Drivers
Analysts estimate that institutional investors will make the largest contribution to the potential bullish scenario. The company’s report notes that by 2030, Bitcoin could account for 6.5% of the global financial portfolio valued at $200 trillion (excluding gold), which is nearly double the current share of gold in investors’ portfolios.
“Institutional investors make the largest contribution to our optimistic scenario”
Another important factor is the establishment of Bitcoin’s reputation as “digital gold” — an asset that is a more mobile and transparent store of value. According to ARK Invest’s forecasts, if Bitcoin captures 60% of the market capitalization of gold, estimated at $18 trillion, its price could rise significantly, providing over a third of the projected price in a bullish market scenario.
Impact of Developing Countries and Other Factors
In addition to institutional interest, demand in developing countries is a significant source of growth. ARK Invest emphasizes that Bitcoin can protect capital from inflation and devaluation. Their estimates suggest that this scenario has the greatest potential for capital accumulation, and with a 6% penetration into the monetary bases of such countries, the price of Bitcoin could reach $2.4 million.
Governments are also showing considerable interest. The report mentions countries that have already integrated cryptocurrencies into their state economies, including El Salvador and Bhutan. Additionally, it references a directive from former U.S. President Donald Trump on March 7 regarding the establishment of a Bitcoin reserve in the U.S. as a potential catalyst for the spread of such an approach.
The report also takes into account the “live” circulation of Bitcoin, excluding lost or reserve supply, which allowed for an increase in the projected price from $1.5 million to $2.4 million in a bullish scenario.
Currently, the price of the cryptocurrency stands at approximately $93,670 according to TradingView data.
It is worth noting that former BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes warned of a potential rise in the asset’s value above $100,000 in the near future, prompting the crypto community to engage in active buying.