Arthur Hayes, co-founder of the cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, expressed his belief that the growth of the cryptocurrency market will begin once the balance of the Treasury General Account (TGA) of the U.S. Department of the Treasury reaches the target level of $850 billion.
This is reported by Business • Media
What is TGA and Why is Its Balance Important for the Markets
The TGA is the primary operating account of the U.S. Treasury at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. This account receives funds from the sale of government bonds (T-bills) and tax revenues. An increase in the TGA balance is usually accompanied by a liquidity outflow from financial markets, including the crypto asset market.
According to MacroMicro, as of September 18, 2025, the TGA balance stands at $816.4 billion. Meanwhile, on September 15, this figure exceeded $850 billion, setting a new high for the year.
Arthur Hayes’ Expectations: Liquidity Will Return to the Markets
“After the liquidity outflow ends, growth can only resume in this case,” Hayes concluded.
According to the expert, once the TGA “cushion” is filled to the target level, liquidity inflow will resume in the markets. This, he says, should serve as a catalyst for a new phase of growth in crypto assets.
Since mid-July 2025, the U.S. Treasury has been actively replenishing the TGA, which has caused a liquidity outflow from other financial sectors. This policy became possible after the U.S. Senate passed the “Big Beautiful Bill” on July 1, 2025, which allowed for an increase in the debt ceiling by $5 trillion. This enabled the issuance of additional bonds and the replenishment of TGA reserves.
In his analysis, Hayes emphasized that with the reserves reaching $850 billion, the liquidity inflow in the crypto market could significantly increase. He believes that the completion of this process opens the way to a new period of rising prices for crypto assets.